The end of 2012 is almost here, and for the Las Vegas real estate market it's been mostly good news - FINALLY! The housing inventory is way down, and prices have risen steadily since the first of the year. A "balanced" market in Vegas should be be about 10,000 homes for sale. But as of today's date, there are only 3,892 single family homes actively on the market.
Here's a breakdown of the current single family homes currently for sale by price range in December vs. July. You will note that the lower end housing under $100k has dwindled significantly by almost 20%, while inventory in the rest of the price ranges has remained almost identical.
Of the homes currently on the market in December, 752 (19.32%) are short sales and only 364 (9.35%) are bank owned foreclosures. That means that over 71% of the current market inventory is comprised of “real” sellers who are taking advantage of the lack of distressed properties to move their homes. The “shadow” inventory everyone has talked about for more than two years has not appeared, and properties under $300k are receiving multiple offers. In addition, most are selling anywhere from 5% to 15% above list price.
We do expect to see more bank foreclosure inventory come to the market in mid to late spring as a result of the latest court rulings on AB 284 which finally allow them to complete the foreclosure process once more. But don’t look for a flood of new listings – they still have to comply with very stringent regulations, and it will take time to work through the back log of files.
And keep in mind that offsetting any new foreclosure inventory from the banks, there will also be more qualified buyers looking for homes by this spring. Many of those homeowners who lost their homes in 2008 and 2009 at the beginning of the foreclosure/short sale cycle have passed their time requirements and can qualify for a new mortgage again.
So looking ahead to the first half of 2013, we expect to see a stable market continue with very gradual price increases. New home builders must think so as well, because new developments are opening once again and incentives to buyers have decreased. They are banking on the fact that primary homeowners in competition with cash investors have gotten so frustrated that they are willing to spend more for a home just to be able to get into one!
Team Leader, The Tonnesen Team
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices, Nevada
3185 St Rose Pkwy #100 Henderson, NV 89052
With over 30 years of experience helping families call Las Vegas "home!"
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